Scientific Discoveries

Author: Turdukulova E.R.
Associate Professor Kyrgyz State University named after I. Arabaev Institute of Economics and Management Bishkek c. This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Author: Abdykadyrova N.A.
master's student Institute of Economics and Management Kyrgyz State University named after I. Arabaev Bishkek c.

SURVIVING WITHOUT A MAP: ENTERPRISE COMPETITIVENESS UNDER RADICAL UNCERTAINTY

Key words: competitiveness, antifragile identity, radical uncertainty, dynamic capabilities, adaptation constraint, Kyrgyzstan, small and medium business, institutional turbulence, currency risks, logistics redundancy, energy deficit, survival, qualitative research, navigators/positioners typology.

Annotation. In an environment where industry boundaries are eroding and the frequency of exogenous shocks is increasing, classical theories of competitiveness face a fundamental limitation: they explain how to adapt, but they do not answer the question of what must remain unchanged in the process of adaptation. Based on a qualitative study of 30 small and medium-sized enterprises in Kyrgyzstan (2018–2024) – a country with extreme institutional and economic turbulence – the article proposes a three-level model of competitiveness in which enterprise identity is treated neither as a resource nor as self-perception, but as an observable structure of constraints in decisions made under stress. The concept of “antifragile identity” is introduced – the ability to preserve the value core under conditions that would otherwise destroy it. Empirically, firms with a strong identity (“navigators”, n=14) show a survival rate of 86% compared to 44% for “positioners” (n=16). The differences are robust and are not explained by firm size, age, or resources; however, alternative explanations (entrepreneurial competence, managerial discipline, access to informal networks, survivorship bias, sectoral differences) are examined. A distinction is drawn between value-motivated and strategically-rational refusals of short-term gain. Five mechanisms through which identity is structurally associated with survival are identified. The theoretical contribution lies in shifting the focus from the question “how to adapt” to the question “what must not be sacrificed when adapting”. A set of five indicators for enterprise self-diagnosis is proposed.